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2016 NFL Draft prospect
Joshua Perry
age 22.0 · 6'4" · 254 lb
On the live board, bust risk sits at 28% and the realistic range is No. 21 to No. 151.
rank#47$2.4M
Big Ten→ SDG's 2016 class
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Joshua Perry at pick #47; he was actually picked #102 by SDG. 2 NFL seasons in, he's barely gotten on the field (grading 1.4 of 20 per season). So far, the league's caution is winning the argument. Model expects a second-deal AAV around $7M/yr.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Medium conviction#47ILB·Ohio St.
We had him No. 47 on draft night; SDG didn't call his name until No. 102 — a 55-pick gap between our board and the league's. His career is settling that argument now.
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Joshua Perry at #47 on draft night — a Day 2 grade — and SDG took him at No. 102, 55 picks later than our grade. The model's case leans on broad top-100 board coverage. Bust risk projects at 28%, near the position baseline. The room had him #62 pre-draft; our board was 15 spots higher.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 2, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk0
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit5
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps0
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports