Refreshed just now
rank#64$1.7M
Big Ten→ NYG's 2016 class
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Paul Perkins at pick #64; he was actually picked #149 by NYG. 2 NFL seasons in, he's carved out a genuine role (grading 8.5 of 20 per season), and the second-contract question is still open — no new deal yet. So far, that's a point for our board.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Medium conviction#64RB·UCLA
We had him No. 64 on draft night; NYG didn't call his name until No. 149 — a 85-pick gap between our board and the league's. His career is settling that argument now.
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Paul Perkins at #64 on draft night — a Day 2 grade — and NYG took him at No. 149, 85 picks later than our grade. Bust risk projects at 5%, below the position median — the model has a tight grade. The room had him #114 pre-draft; our board was 50 spots higher.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 2, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports