Refreshed just now
rank#63$1.7M
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Sterling Shepard at pick #63; he was actually picked #40 by NYG. 2 NFL seasons in, he's producing like a real starter (grading 13.8 of 20 per season). So far, the league's aggression looks right. Model expects a second-deal AAV around $22M/yr.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Low conviction#63WR·Oklahoma
The league moved faster than our board — NYG took him at No. 40, 23 picks ahead of our No. 63 grade. His career is settling that argument now.
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Sterling Shepard at #63 on draft night — a Day 2 grade — and NYG took him at No. 40, 23 picks earlier than our grade. The model's case leans on broad top-100 board coverage. Bust risk projects at 10%, below the position median — the model has a tight grade. The room had him #43 pre-draft; our board sat 20 spots lower.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 2, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports