Refreshed just now
2015 NFL Draft prospect
Paul Dawson
age 22.3 · 6'0" · 235 lb
On the live board, bust risk sits at 21% and the realistic range is No. 105 to No. 265.
Big 12→ CIN's 2015 class
Limited public-board coverage (0 boards) — grade leans on stats + athleticism alone
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Paul Dawson at pick #135; he was actually picked #99 by CIN. 3 NFL seasons in, he's barely gotten on the field (grading 0.3 of 20 per season), and the second-contract question is still open — no new deal yet. Model expects a second-deal AAV around $9M/yr.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Medium conviction#135ILB·TCU
The league moved faster than our board — CIN took him at No. 99, 36 picks ahead of our No. 135 grade. His career is settling that argument now.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk0
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit5
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps0
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports