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2016 NFL Draft prospect
Charles Tapper
age 23.0 · 6'3" · 271 lb
On the live board, bust risk sits at 18% and the realistic range is No. 59 to No. 231.
rank#133$1.1M
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Charles Tapper at pick #133; he was actually picked #101 by DAL. 1 NFL season in, he's carved out a genuine role (grading 8.0 of 20 per season). Model expects a second-deal AAV around $9M/yr.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
High conviction#133EDGE·Oklahoma
The league moved faster than our board — DAL took him at No. 101, 32 picks ahead of our No. 133 grade. His career is settling that argument now.
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Charles Tapper at #133 on draft night — a Day 3 grade — and DAL took him at No. 101, 32 picks earlier than our grade. The model's case leans on broad top-100 board coverage. Bust risk projects at 18%, below the position median — the model has a tight grade. The room had him #148 pre-draft; our board was 15 spots higher.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 4, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk2
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit5
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps0
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports