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2016 NFL Draft prospect
Kevin Dodd
age 23.8 · 6'5" · 277 lb
On the live board, bust risk sits at 61% and the realistic range is No. 37 to No. 225.
rank#117$1.2M
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Kevin Dodd at pick #117; he was actually picked #33 by TEN. 2 NFL seasons in, he's carved out a genuine role (grading 7.2 of 20 per season). Model expects a second-deal AAV around $7M/yr.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Medium conviction#117EDGE·Clemson
The league moved faster than our board — TEN took him at No. 33, 84 picks ahead of our No. 117 grade. His career is settling that argument now.
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Kevin Dodd at #117 on draft night — a Day 3 grade — and TEN took him at No. 33, 84 picks earlier than our grade. The model's case leans on broad top-100 board coverage. Bust risk projects at 61% — well above the position median; the model is flagging this as a high-variance pick. The room had him #36 pre-draft; our board sat 81 spots lower.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 4, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk2
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit5
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps0
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports