Refreshed just now
rank#249
Limited public-board coverage (1 board) — grade leans on stats + athleticism alone
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Devin Lucien at pick #249; he was actually picked #225 by NWE.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Speculative#249WR·Arizona St.
The league moved faster than our board — NWE took him at No. 225, 24 picks ahead of our No. 249 grade. His career is settling that argument now.
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Devin Lucien at #249 on draft night — a Day 3 grade — and NWE took him at No. 225, 24 picks earlier than our grade. Bust risk projects at 45%, elevated against the position baseline. The room had him #152 pre-draft; our board sat 97 spots lower.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 7, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports