Wide receiver WR
Yards-per-route + breakout age + production trajectory + RAS-vs-production. The model's most accurate read among the skill positions.
Likeliest career, by the outcome model.
How many receivers land in each career bucket as the model's single most likely finish. This is a different question from the board grades below — a prospect can be a Day 3 grade and still have “starter” as his likeliest outcome. The tails (elite, bust) are where the model separates; the middle two buckets sit close to a coin flip.
The board.
All 32 receivers with a draftable grade on Draftanomics's 2017 board, tier by tier.
The top shelf is bare: no receiver in the 2017 class earns a blue-chip grade.
The first-round tier runs from Corey Davis at No. 11 down to Mike Williams at No. 24. Mind the gap after Williams: Chris Godwin is next, and he is 29 picks away. The room is higher on Mike Williams than we are: consensus No. 11 to our No. 24.
The Day 2 tier runs 5 deep, opening with Chris Godwin out of Penn St. at No. 53 and closing with Zay Jones at No. 100. Mind the gap after Jones: JuJu Smith-Schuster is next, and he is 22 picks away. One caution flag: the bust model — a group it reads well at receiver — puts Carlos Henderson at 43 percent.
JuJu Smith-Schuster leads a 24-deep Day 3 group — the meat of the WR board — starting at a projected No. 122 overall. The risk in the group is Shelton Gibson: 50 percent by a bust model that has earned trust at receiver.