Tight end TE
Athletic profile + receiving share + age. Volatile because role usage swings the projection.
Likeliest career, by the outcome model.
How many tight ends land in each career bucket as the model's single most likely finish. This is a different question from the board grades below — a prospect can be a Day 3 grade and still have “starter” as his likeliest outcome. The tails (elite, bust) are where the model separates; the middle two buckets sit close to a coin flip.
The board.
All 11 tight ends with a draftable grade on Draftanomics's 2021 board, tier by tier.
No blue-chip tight end this cycle — Kyle Pitts is the class's best, and he carries the next grade down.
Only Kyle Pitts carries a first-round grade at tight end — the Florida product projects No. 15 overall. The drop behind Pitts is the story — Pat Freiermuth does not come off the board for another 31 picks. The room is higher on Kyle Pitts than we are: consensus No. 2 to our No. 15.
Pat Freiermuth out of Penn St. fronts a three-man Day 2 tier at No. 46 overall, with Tremble and Long filling it out. After Long the board breathes — Brevin Jordan projects 19 picks later. Inside the tier, the model's fight is Tommy Tremble: it says No. 80, the room says No. 135.
Brevin Jordan leads a 7-deep Day 3 group — the meat of the TE board — starting at a projected No. 121 overall. One caution flag: the bust model — a group it reads well at tight end — puts Zach Davidson at 53 percent.