Tight end TE
Athletic profile + receiving share + age. Volatile because role usage swings the projection.
Likeliest career, by the outcome model.
How many tight ends land in each career bucket as the model's single most likely finish. This is a different question from the board grades below — a prospect can be a Day 3 grade and still have “starter” as his likeliest outcome. The tails (elite, bust) are where the model separates; the middle two buckets sit close to a coin flip.
The board.
All 14 tight ends with a draftable grade on Draftanomics's 2017 board, tier by tier.
The top shelf is bare: no tight end in the 2017 class earns a blue-chip grade.
The first-round tier is a pair: O.J. Howard out of Alabama at No. 8, with David Njoku at No. 30 behind him. After Njoku the board breathes — Evan Engram projects 18 picks later. The room is higher on David Njoku than we are: consensus No. 15 to our No. 30.
Three tight ends carry a Day 2 grade, and Evan Engram heads the group at a projected No. 48 overall. Mind the gap after Hodges: Jake Butt is next, and he is 43 picks away. One caution flag: the bust model — a group it reads well at tight end — puts Bucky Hodges at 47 percent.
This is where the class lives: 9 tight ends carry a Day 3 grade, with Jake Butt out of Michigan at the front of the line at No. 128 overall. The risk in the group is Mason Schreck: 63 percent by a bust model that has earned trust at tight end.