Safety S
Tackles + PBUs + speed + Senior Bowl. The bust model is weakest at safety — treat predictions as directional.
Likeliest career, by the outcome model.
How many safeties land in each career bucket as the model's single most likely finish. This is a different question from the board grades below — a prospect can be a Day 3 grade and still have “starter” as his likeliest outcome. The tails (elite, bust) are where the model separates; the middle two buckets sit close to a coin flip.
The board.
All 20 safeties with a draftable grade on Draftanomics's 2019 board, tier by tier.
The top shelf is bare: no safety in the 2019 class earns a blue-chip grade.
Taylor Rapp out of Washington fronts a three-man first-round tier at No. 16 overall, with Savage and Adderley filling it out. Mind the gap after Adderley: C.J. Gardner-Johnson is next, and he is 25 picks away. The model is planting a flag on Taylor Rapp, 27 spots ahead of where the room ranks him (No. 43).
C.J. Gardner-Johnson leads a 5-deep Day 2 group — the meat of the S board — starting at a projected No. 54 overall. Then the board falls off a cliff — 35 projected picks between Hooker and Marvell Tell III, the next name down. C.J. Gardner-Johnson is the tier's dissent — the room ranks him No. 35, our board waits until No. 54.
This is where the class lives: 12 safetys carry a Day 3 grade, with Marvell Tell III out of USC at the front of the line at No. 108 overall. Saquan Hampton is the tier's dissent — the room ranks him No. 118, our board waits until No. 219.