Safety S
Tackles + PBUs + speed + Senior Bowl. The bust model is weakest at safety — treat predictions as directional.
Likeliest career, by the outcome model.
How many safeties land in each career bucket as the model's single most likely finish. This is a different question from the board grades below — a prospect can be a Day 3 grade and still have “starter” as his likeliest outcome. The tails (elite, bust) are where the model separates; the middle two buckets sit close to a coin flip.
The board.
All 24 safeties with a draftable grade on Draftanomics's 2017 board, tier by tier.
Only Malik Hooker carries a blue-chip grade at safety — the Ohio St. product projects No. 4 overall. Barely a seam here — Jamal Adams comes off just 3 picks later.
The first-round tier runs 7 deep, opening with Jamal Adams out of LSU at No. 7 and closing with Desmond King at No. 32. Barely a seam here — Justin Evans comes off just 8 picks later. Inside the tier, the model's fight is Nathan Gerry: it says No. 29, the room says No. 155.
This is where the class lives: 5 safetys carry a Day 2 grade, with Justin Evans out of Texas A&M at the front of the line at No. 40 overall. No cliff at the bottom, either: Eddie Jackson is 6 projected picks behind Hill. Inside the tier, the model's fight is Justin Evans: it says No. 40, the room says No. 75.
The Day 3 tier runs 11 deep, opening with Eddie Jackson out of Alabama at No. 111 and closing with Rudy Ford at No. 247. The room is higher on Josh Harvey-Clemons than we are: consensus No. 47 to our No. 208.