Running back RB
Production + breakout age + age-at-draft are the primary signals. Volume is heavily devalued vs the 2010s.
Likeliest career, by the outcome model.
How many running backs land in each career bucket as the model's single most likely finish. This is a different question from the board grades below — a prospect can be a Day 3 grade and still have “starter” as his likeliest outcome. The tails (elite, bust) are where the model separates; the middle two buckets sit close to a coin flip.
The board.
All 18 running backs with a draftable grade on Draftanomics's 2020 board, tier by tier.
No blue-chip running back this cycle — Clyde Edwards-Helaire is the class's best, and he carries the next grade down.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire leads a 5-deep first-round group — the meat of the RB board — starting at a projected No. 7 overall. The break below is soft: Zack Moss projects just 9 projected picks after Swift, so the tier line is a label more than a wall. Inside the tier, the model's fight is Cam Akers: it says No. 14, the room says No. 51.
Only Zack Moss carries a Day 2 grade at running back — the Utah product projects No. 37 overall. The drop behind Moss is the story — AJ Dillon does not come off the board for another 77 picks. Inside the tier, the model's fight is Zack Moss: it says No. 37, the room says No. 126.
This is where the class lives: 12 running backs carry a Day 3 grade, with AJ Dillon out of Boston Col. at the front of the line at No. 114 overall. Anthony McFarland Jr. is the tier's dissent — the room ranks him No. 49, our board waits until No. 245.