Running back RB
Production + breakout age + age-at-draft are the primary signals. Volume is heavily devalued vs the 2010s.
Likeliest career, by the outcome model.
How many running backs land in each career bucket as the model's single most likely finish. This is a different question from the board grades below — a prospect can be a Day 3 grade and still have “starter” as his likeliest outcome. The tails (elite, bust) are where the model separates; the middle two buckets sit close to a coin flip.
The board.
All 21 running backs with a draftable grade on Draftanomics's 2018 board, tier by tier.
The blue-chip tier is a pair: Derrius Guice out of LSU at No. 1, with Saquon Barkley at No. 2 behind him. There is a real step down from there — Nick Chubb sits 13 projected picks behind Barkley. Derrius Guice is the argument in this tier — No. 1 on our board against a consensus No. 13.
Three running backs carry a first-round grade, and Nick Chubb heads the group at a projected No. 15 overall. Barely a seam here — Royce Freeman comes off just 5 picks later. Inside the tier, the model's fight is Nick Chubb: it says No. 15, the room says No. 37.
Royce Freeman leads a 6-deep Day 2 group — the meat of the RB board — starting at a projected No. 37 overall. No cliff at the bottom, either: Nyheim Hines is 9 projected picks behind Kelly. The model is planting a flag on Royce Freeman, 82 spots ahead of where the room ranks him (No. 119).
This is where the class lives: 10 running backs carry a Day 3 grade, with Nyheim Hines out of North Carolina St. at the front of the line at No. 114 overall. The room is higher on Mark Walton than we are: consensus No. 99 to our No. 155.