Offensive tackle OT
Athleticism + games started + Senior Bowl invite carry most of the weight — college stats say little about offensive line play.
Likeliest career, by the outcome model.
How many offensive tackles land in each career bucket as the model's single most likely finish. This is a different question from the board grades below — a prospect can be a Day 3 grade and still have “starter” as his likeliest outcome. The tails (elite, bust) are where the model separates; the middle two buckets sit close to a coin flip.
The board.
All 22 offensive tackles with a draftable grade on Draftanomics's 2019 board, tier by tier.
The blue-chip tier is a pair: Dalton Risner out of Kansas St. at No. 2, with Jawaan Taylor at No. 5 behind him. No cliff at the bottom, either: Andre Dillard is 4 projected picks behind Taylor. And the floor is solid: the bust model, reliable for offensive tackles, clears everyone here.
Andre Dillard and Cody Ford make up the first-round tier, projected No. 9 and No. 17 overall. Mind the gap after Ford: Kaleb McGary is next, and he is 22 picks away. Notably clean, too — nobody in the group trips the bust model, which has real signal at offensive tackle.
The Day 2 tier runs 7 deep, opening with Kaleb McGary out of Washington at No. 39 and closing with Isaiah Prince at No. 105. No cliff at the bottom, either: Bobby Evans is 9 projected picks behind Prince. One caution flag: the bust model — a group it reads well at offensive tackle — puts Isaiah Prince at 38 percent.
Bobby Evans leads a 11-deep Day 3 group — the meat of the OT board — starting at a projected No. 114 overall. The room is higher on Chuma Edoga than we are: consensus No. 100 to our No. 203.