Guard G
Same inputs as tackle, with slightly more emphasis on Senior Bowl + Pro Day testing.
Likeliest career, by the outcome model.
How many guards land in each career bucket as the model's single most likely finish. This is a different question from the board grades below — a prospect can be a Day 3 grade and still have “starter” as his likeliest outcome. The tails (elite, bust) are where the model separates; the middle two buckets sit close to a coin flip.
The board.
All 4 guards with a draftable grade on Draftanomics's 2022 board, tier by tier.
Zion Johnson out of Boston Col. is the blue-chip tier by himself, projected No. 3 overall. Mind the gap after Johnson: Luke Fortner is next, and he is 47 picks away. Zion Johnson is the argument in this tier — No. 3 on our board against a consensus No. 20.
Nobody here. The class simply skips the first-round tier at guard.
The Day 2 shelf is one name deep: Luke Fortner out of Kentucky, pegged at No. 50 overall. The drop behind Fortner is the story — Chasen Hines does not come off the board for another 61 picks. Luke Fortner is the argument in this tier — No. 50 on our board against a consensus No. 105.
Chasen Hines and Ed Ingram make up the Day 3 tier, projected No. 111 and No. 128 overall. Ed Ingram is the tier's dissent — the room ranks him No. 100, our board waits until No. 128.