Guard G
Same inputs as tackle, with slightly more emphasis on Senior Bowl + Pro Day testing.
Likeliest career, by the outcome model.
How many guards land in each career bucket as the model's single most likely finish. This is a different question from the board grades below — a prospect can be a Day 3 grade and still have “starter” as his likeliest outcome. The tails (elite, bust) are where the model separates; the middle two buckets sit close to a coin flip.
The board.
All 11 guards with a draftable grade on Draftanomics's 2017 board, tier by tier.
Forrest Lamp out of Western Kentucky is the blue-chip tier by himself, projected No. 2 overall. The drop to Dan Feeney is 12 projected picks: a step, not a cliff. The model is planting a flag on Forrest Lamp, 15 spots ahead of where the room ranks him (No. 17).
Dan Feeney out of Indiana fronts a three-man first-round tier at No. 14 overall, with Siragusa and Moton filling it out. After Moton the board breathes — Dion Dawkins projects 14 picks later. Nico Siragusa is the argument in this tier — No. 20 on our board against a consensus No. 105.
The Day 2 tier runs from Dion Dawkins at No. 36 down to Jermaine Eluemunor at No. 90. Mind the gap after Eluemunor: Jordan Morgan is next, and he is 52 picks away. And the floor is solid: the bust model, reliable for guards, clears everyone here.
Three guards carry a Day 3 grade, and Jordan Morgan heads the group at a projected No. 142 overall. Notably clean, too — nobody in the group trips the bust model, which has real signal at guard.