2 prospects · 2022 draft
Decisive factor: a bust risk 65 points lower. Reinforced by a stronger historical comp arc, 28-pick gap on Draftanomics projection and $8M/yr more in projected second-deal AAV.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Matt Corral (age 23.2 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #61 (range #40-#82, wide band). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Jarrett Stidham (Bust), Jacob Eason (Bust), Mason Rudolph (Contributor). Ceiling is Drew Lock (Contributor); floor is Mason Rudolph (Contributor). Drafted #94 by CAR in 2022 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #61 sits within 10 spots of the room's #51 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 65% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Malik Willis (age 22.9 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #33 (range #3-#63, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Jordan Love (Starter), Justin Herbert (Franchise), Jalen Hurts (Franchise). Ceiling is Sam Darnold (Franchise); floor is James Morgan. School SP+ 8.4 (CONFERENCE USA). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. RAS 2.39 (23th percentile vs QB prospects in a 20-yr Combine population). Below the 30th-percentile bar that most NFL starters clear. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #33 sits within 4 spots of the room's #29 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.