3 prospects · 2022 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Perrion Winfrey (age 21.7 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #148 (range #104-#192, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 34% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Leki Fotu (Contributor), DaVon Hamilton (Starter), Larrell Murchison (Backup). Ceiling is DaVon Hamilton (Starter); floor is Larrell Murchison (Backup). 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Larrell Murchison, Robert Windsor. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #56 and the model won't take him before #148 — a 92-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Otito Ogbonnia (age 21.7 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #186 (range #142-#230, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 47% — elevated. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Leki Fotu (Contributor), Robert Windsor (Bust), Larrell Murchison (Backup). Ceiling is DaVon Hamilton (Starter); floor is Larrell Murchison (Backup). 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Robert Windsor, Larrell Murchison. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 28 spots below the room's consensus #158 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects John Ridgeway (age 23.0 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #163 (range #131-#195, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 3% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: DaVon Hamilton (Starter), Leki Fotu (Contributor), Larrell Murchison (Backup). Ceiling is DaVon Hamilton (Starter); floor is Larrell Murchison (Backup). 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Larrell Murchison, Robert Windsor. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #110 and the model won't take him before #163 — a 53-spot markdown. The discount is earned — average-to-below athletic profile leads the case against.