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RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2022 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (DT)
PM
Phidarian Mathis
DT · Alabama
24.0 yo · 6'4" · 310 lb
NF
Neil Farrell
DT · LSU
23.6 yo · 6'4" · 330 lb
DW
Devonte Wyatt
DT · Georgia
24.1 yo · 6'3" · 304 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Phidarian Mathis
Predicted pick
#125
range #93–#157
Bust probability
0%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
#83
on 24 boards
Career arc
Contributor
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Neil Farrell
Predicted pick
#149
range #116–#182
Bust probability
4%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
#60
on 1 board
Career arc
Contributor
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Devonte Wyatt
Predicted pick
#34
range #8–#138
Bust probability
10%
Consensus rank
#24
on 27 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$7Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Phidarian Mathis· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Neil Farrell· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Devonte Wyatt· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionPhidarian Mathis100
  • AthleticismDevonte Wyatt41
  • AgeDevonte Wyatt41
  • ConsensusDevonte Wyatt66
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Phidarian Mathis50
  • Breakout agePhidarian Mathis50
  • WorkloadPhidarian Mathis100
  • RAS × productionPhidarian Mathis0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • Neville GallimoreDT · Contributor→ shared byPhidarian MathisNeil Farrell
  • DaVon HamiltonDT · Starter→ shared byPhidarian MathisNeil Farrell
  • Larrell MurchisonDT · Backup→ shared byPhidarian MathisNeil Farrell
  • Leki FotuDT · Contributor→ shared byPhidarian MathisNeil Farrell
Phidarian Mathis
  • Neville Gallimoreshared
    DT · #82
    Contributor
  • DaVon Hamiltonshared
    DT · #73
    Starter
  • Larrell Murchisonshared
    DT · #174
    Backup
  • Robert Windsor
    DT · #193
    Bust
  • Leki Fotushared
    DT · #114
    Contributor
Neil Farrell
  • Neville Gallimoreshared
    DT · #82
    Contributor
  • DaVon Hamiltonshared
    DT · #73
    Starter
  • Larrell Murchisonshared
    DT · #174
    Backup
  • Leki Fotushared
    DT · #114
    Contributor
  • John Penisini
    DT · #197
    Contributor
Devonte Wyatt
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Phidarian Mathis
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 24.0 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • Average-to-below athletic profile
    RAS 3.95 (39th percentile at DT). Athleticism is average at best for the position.
  • Comp group bust rate
    2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Larrell Murchison, Robert Windsor. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    25 boards have him at mean rank #75; model has him #125 — a 50-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
Neil Farrell
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.6 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • Athletic profile below NFL threshold
    RAS 2.34 (23th percentile vs DT prospects in a 321-yr Combine population). Below the 30th-percentile bar that most NFL starters clear.
  • Comp group has bust risk
    1 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Larrell Murchison. Mixed signal from history.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    2 boards have him at mean rank #88; model has him #149 — a 60-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
Devonte Wyatt
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Phidarian MathisNeil FarrellDevonte Wyatt· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Phidarian Mathis

Draftanomics projects Phidarian Mathis (age 24.0 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #125 (range #93-#157, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Neville Gallimore (Contributor), DaVon Hamilton (Starter), Larrell Murchison (Backup). Ceiling is DaVon Hamilton (Starter); floor is Larrell Murchison (Backup). 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Larrell Murchison, Robert Windsor. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #75 and the model won't take him before #125 — a 50-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.

Neil Farrell

Draftanomics projects Neil Farrell (age 23.6 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #149 (range #116-#182, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 4% — low. The comp set is mixed: 1 starters-or-better vs 1 backups-or-busts among the 2 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Neville Gallimore (Contributor), DaVon Hamilton (Starter), Larrell Murchison (Backup). Ceiling is DaVon Hamilton (Starter); floor is Larrell Murchison (Backup). RAS 2.34 (23th percentile vs DT prospects in a 321-yr Combine population). Below the 30th-percentile bar that most NFL starters clear. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #88 and the model won't take him before #149 — a 60-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.

Devonte Wyatt

+0.08 boards with him top-100; +0.05 scout consensus; +0.04 boards with him top-50