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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2022 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (OL)
LB
Logan Bruss
OL · Wisconsin
— · — · —
CJ
Cam Jurgens
OL · Nebraska
— · — · —
TM
Thayer Munford
OL · Ohio St.
— · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Logan Bruss
Predicted pick
#92
range #76–#108
Bust probability· rough estimate
65%
0%comp-based · 0/5
Consensus rank
#106
on 4 boards
Career arc
Starter
tier · Day 2
2nd-deal AAV
$6Mmodel
Cam Jurgens
Predicted pick
#129
range #99–#259
Bust probability· rough estimate
27%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$15Mmodel
Thayer Munford
Predicted pick
#158
range #117–#199
Bust probability· rough estimate
0%
0%comp-based · 0/5
Consensus rank
#104
on 2 boards
Career arc
Contributor
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$6Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Logan Bruss· Offensive line
  • Cam Jurgens· Offensive line
  • Thayer Munford· Offensive line
Axis leaders
  • ProductionLogan Bruss50
  • AthleticismLogan Bruss57
  • AgeLogan Bruss63
  • ConsensusThayer Munford19
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Logan Bruss50
  • Breakout ageLogan Bruss50
  • WorkloadLogan Bruss50
  • RAS × productionCam Jurgens89

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • Shane LemieuxG · Contributor→ shared byLogan BrussThayer Munford
Logan Bruss
  • Michael Jordan
    G · #136
    Starter
  • Ben Powers
    G · #123
    Franchise
  • Shane Lemieuxshared
    G · #150
    Contributor
  • Michael Deiter
    G · #78
    Starter
  • Solomon Kindley
    G · #111
    Contributor
Cam Jurgens
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Thayer Munford
  • Will Clapp
    C · #245
    Contributor
  • Bobby Evans
    OT · #97
    Contributor
  • Shane Lemieuxshared
    G · #150
    Contributor
  • Geron Christian
    OT · #74
    Contributor
  • Mason Cole
    C · #97
    Franchise

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Logan Bruss
Risks
  • Missed entire rookie season
    Drafted #104 by LAR in 2022 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have.
Opportunities
  • Strong comp group
    3 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes became Starters or Franchise players: Michael Jordan, Ben Powers, Michael Deiter. The historical neighborhood overwhelmingly produced NFL contributors.
Cam Jurgens
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Thayer Munford
Risks
  • Average-to-below athletic profile
    RAS 3.96 (39th percentile at OL). Athleticism is average at best for the position.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    3 boards have him at mean rank #105; model has him #158 — a 53-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Logan BrussCam JurgensThayer Munford· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Logan Bruss

Draftanomics projects Logan Bruss as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #92 (range #76-#108, wide band). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is strong: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Michael Jordan (Starter), Ben Powers (Franchise), Shane Lemieux (Contributor). Ceiling is Ben Powers (Franchise); floor is Shane Lemieux (Contributor). Drafted #104 by LAR in 2022 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #92 sits within 8 spots of the room's #100 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 65% bust probability break ties on draft day.

Cam Jurgens

−0.05 HS recruit rating; −0.04 boards with him top-100; +0.03 age

Thayer Munford

Draftanomics projects Thayer Munford as a mid-round flyer at #158 (range #117-#199, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Will Clapp (Contributor), Bobby Evans (Contributor), Shane Lemieux (Contributor). Ceiling is Mason Cole (Franchise); floor is Will Clapp (Contributor). RAS 3.96 (39th percentile at OL). Athleticism is average at best for the position. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #105 and the model won't take him before #158 — a 53-spot markdown. The discount is earned — average-to-below athletic profile leads the case against.