3 prospects · 2022 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects DeMarvin Leal (age 21.8 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #66 (range #30-#102, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Harrison Phillips (Starter), Rasheem Green (Starter), Dexter Lawrence (Starter). Ceiling is Dexter Lawrence (Starter); floor is Maurice Hurst Jr. (Contributor). The call is a hold at slot: the model's #66 sits within 9 spots of the room's #57 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Matthew Butler (age 22.9 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #206 (range #168-#244, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 24% — manageable. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Kingsley Keke (Contributor), Greg Gaines (Starter), Nnamdi Madubuike (Starter). Ceiling is Nnamdi Madubuike (Starter); floor is Kingsley Keke (Contributor). 2 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Davon Godchaux, Chris Slayton. Mixed signal from history. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #112 and the model won't take him before #206 — a 94-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group has bust risk leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Perrion Winfrey (age 21.7 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #148 (range #104-#192, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 34% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Leki Fotu (Contributor), DaVon Hamilton (Starter), Larrell Murchison (Backup). Ceiling is DaVon Hamilton (Starter); floor is Larrell Murchison (Backup). 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Larrell Murchison, Robert Windsor. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #56 and the model won't take him before #148 — a 92-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.