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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2022 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (OL)
BR
Bernhard Raimann
OL · Central Michigan
— · — · —
LG
Luke Goedeke
OL · Central Michigan
— · — · —
AL
Abraham Lucas
OL · Washington St.
— · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Bernhard Raimann
Predicted pick
#19
range #28–#154
Bust probability· rough estimate
3%
Consensus rank
#44
on 26 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$21Mmodel
Luke Goedeke
Predicted pick
#47
range #11–#180
Bust probability· rough estimate
1%
Consensus rank
#96
on 10 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$18Mmodel
Abraham Lucas
Predicted pick
#42
range #6–#175
Bust probability· rough estimate
3%
Consensus rank
#88
on 24 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$15Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Bernhard Raimann· Offensive line
  • Luke Goedeke· Offensive line
  • Abraham Lucas· Offensive line
Axis leaders
  • ProductionBernhard Raimann50
  • AthleticismAbraham Lucas90
  • AgeAbraham Lucas62
  • ConsensusBernhard Raimann55
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Bernhard Raimann50
  • Breakout ageBernhard Raimann50
  • WorkloadBernhard Raimann50
  • RAS × productionAbraham Lucas43

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Bernhard Raimann
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Luke Goedeke
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Abraham Lucas
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Bernhard Raimann
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Luke Goedeke
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Abraham Lucas
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Bernhard RaimannLuke GoedekeAbraham Lucas· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Bernhard Raimann

+0.06 boards with him top-100; +0.04 boards with him top-50; +0.04 charting gap run block grade

Luke Goedeke

+0.04 charting gap run block grade; +0.03 age; +0.03 boards with him top-100

Abraham Lucas

+0.05 athleticism (RAS); +0.05 boards with him top-100; +0.03 age