3 prospects · 2022 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Thayer Munford as a mid-round flyer at #158 (range #117-#199, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Will Clapp (Contributor), Bobby Evans (Contributor), Shane Lemieux (Contributor). Ceiling is Mason Cole (Franchise); floor is Will Clapp (Contributor). RAS 3.96 (39th percentile at OL). Athleticism is average at best for the position. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #105 and the model won't take him before #158 — a 53-spot markdown. The discount is earned — average-to-below athletic profile leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Rasheed Walker as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #104 (range #66-#142, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 20% — manageable. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Braden Smith (Franchise), Michael Onwenu (Franchise), Ethan Pocic. Ceiling is Braden Smith (Franchise); floor is Ethan Pocic. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 24 spots below the room's consensus #80 — don't pay sticker price. The 24-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.
Draftanomics projects Logan Bruss as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #92 (range #76-#108, wide band). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is strong: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Michael Jordan (Starter), Ben Powers (Franchise), Shane Lemieux (Contributor). Ceiling is Ben Powers (Franchise); floor is Shane Lemieux (Contributor). Drafted #104 by LAR in 2022 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #92 sits within 8 spots of the room's #100 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 65% bust probability break ties on draft day.