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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2022 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (LB)
DH
Devin Harper
LB · Oklahoma St.
24.0 yo · — · —
BS
Baylon Spector
LB · Clemson
23.5 yo · 6'0" · 233 lb
Tiebreaker
Low confidence — essentially tied
Truly tied on the model.

Devin Harper and Baylon Spector project within 8 picks of each other, and neither bust risk nor the historical comps can separate them. Take the one at the position of greater need.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Devin Harper
Predicted pick
#185
range #147–#223
Bust probability
0%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$2Mmodel
Baylon Spector
Predicted pick
#156
range #126–#186
Bust probability
0%
0%0/4 comps
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Devin Harper· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Baylon Spector· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionDevin Harper100
  • AthleticismDevin Harper41
  • AgeBaylon Spector26
  • ConsensusBaylon Spector9
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Devin Harper50
  • Breakout ageDevin Harper50
  • WorkloadDevin Harper100
  • RAS × productionDevin Harper0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • Jordan GlasgowLB · Bust→ shared byDevin HarperBaylon Spector
  • Ryan ConnellyLB · Bust→ shared byDevin HarperBaylon Spector
Devin Harper
  • Jordan Glasgowshared
    LB · #213
    Bust
  • Ryan Connellyshared
    LB · #143
    Bust
  • Kaden Elliss
    LB · #244
    Starter
  • Sione Takitaki
    LB · #80
    Contributor
  • Andrew Van Ginkel
    LB · #151
    Starter
Baylon Spector
  • Ryan Connellyshared
    LB · #143
    Bust
  • Jordan Glasgowshared
    LB · #213
    Bust
  • Dakota Allen
    LB · #251
    Bust
  • Deshaun Davis
    LB · #210
    TBD
  • Troy Dye
    LB · #132
    Contributor

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Devin Harper
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 24.0 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #324; model has him #185 — a 139-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Baylon Spector
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.5 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #353; model has him #156 — a 197-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
  • Comp group bust rate
    3 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Ryan Connelly, Jordan Glasgow, Dakota Allen. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Devin HarperBaylon Spector· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Devin Harper

Draftanomics projects Devin Harper (age 24.0 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #185 (range #147-#223, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Jordan Glasgow (Bust), Ryan Connelly (Bust), Kaden Elliss (Starter). Ceiling is Andrew Van Ginkel (Starter); floor is Sione Takitaki (Contributor). Age 24.0 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 139 spots ahead of the room (board #185 vs consensus #324), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.

Baylon Spector

Draftanomics projects Baylon Spector (age 23.5 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #156 (range #126-#186, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Ryan Connelly (Bust), Jordan Glasgow (Bust), Dakota Allen (Bust). Ceiling is Troy Dye (Contributor); floor is Deshaun Davis. 3 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Ryan Connelly, Jordan Glasgow, Dakota Allen. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 197 spots ahead of the room (board #156 vs consensus #353), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.