2 prospects · 2022 draft
Decisive factor: 35-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by a bust risk 22 points lower.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Zyon McCollum (age 23.0 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #77 (range #59-#95, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Reggie Robinson II (Bust), Michael Ojemudia (Contributor), Kindle Vildor (Contributor). Ceiling is Michael Ojemudia (Contributor); floor is Kindle Vildor (Contributor). RAS 9.20 (92th percentile at CB in a 496-yr Combine population). Elite athleticism is the strongest pre-NFL predictor of career length at most positions. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #77 and the room's #78 land on the same answer — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Cam Taylor-Britt (age 22.5 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #112 (range #94-#130, wide band). Bust probability sits at 22% — manageable. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Michael Ojemudia (Contributor), Reggie Robinson II (Bust), Troy Pride Jr. (Contributor). Ceiling is Michael Ojemudia (Contributor); floor is Kindle Vildor (Contributor). The call is a lean fade: the model sits 25 spots below the room's consensus #87 — don't pay sticker price. The 25-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.