3 prospects · 2022 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects DJ Davidson (age 24.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #225 (range #182-#268, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 4% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Treyvon Hester (Bust), Broderick Washington Jr. (Contributor), Carlos Davis (Bust). Ceiling is Nathan Shepherd (Contributor); floor is Broderick Washington Jr. (Contributor). Age 24.6 at draft. Players entering the league past 24 hit fewer career milestones — the developmental window is already compressed before they take an NFL snap. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 53 spots ahead of the room (board #225 vs consensus #278), and at a 4% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Jordan Jackson (age 24.2 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #247 (range #209-#285, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 2 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Treyvon Hester (Bust), Khalil Davis (Contributor), Grover Stewart (Bust). Ceiling is Nathan Shepherd (Contributor); floor is Khalil Davis (Contributor). School SP+ 7.4 (MOUNTAIN WEST). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. Drafted #194 by NOR in 2022 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 95 spots ahead of the room (board #247 vs consensus #342) — but size the bet for the 65% bust probability; this is a price edge, not a safety edge.
Draftanomics projects Kalia Davis (age 23.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #216 (range #189-#243, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: John Penisini (Contributor), Deadrin Senat (Contributor), Broderick Washington Jr. (Contributor). Ceiling is Deadrin Senat (Contributor); floor is John Penisini (Contributor). Drafted #220 by SFO in 2022 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #154 and the model won't take him before #216 — a 62-spot markdown. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.