2 prospects · 2022 draft
Decisive factor: 25-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by a stronger historical comp arc.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects George Pickens (age 21.1 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #64 (range #4-#124, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Curtis Samuel (Bust), Dante Pettis (Contributor), Equanimeous St. Brown (Contributor). Ceiling is Jalen Reagor (Contributor); floor is Isaiah Ford. PPA avg_all 0.390 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 18 spots below the room's consensus #46 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — negative per-play impact leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Chris Olave (age 21.8 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #39 (range #25-#53, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Mike Williams (Bust), Jerry Jeudy (Starter), Marquise Brown (Starter). Ceiling is A.J. Brown (Franchise); floor is Marquise Brown (Starter). 2 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Mike Williams, JuJu Smith-Schuster. Mixed signal from history. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 20 spots below the room's consensus #19 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — comp group has bust risk leads the case against.