Draftanomics
  • 2027 board
  • Consensus board
  • 2028 way-too-early
  • Draft news
  • Simulator
  • The house mock
  • Draft order
  • Trade calculator
  • The Scouting Slate
  • Sleepers & reaches
  • Movers & fallers
  • Player comps
  • Dynasty rookie board
  • Track record
  • Past drafts, re-graded
  • Analyst leaderboard
My rankingsAccount
Get the weekly →
Draftanomics

Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

Boards
  • 2027 board
  • Consensus board
  • Sleepers
Tools
  • Mock draft simulator
  • Plays Like
  • Dynasty rookie board
Track Record
  • Year-by-year results
  • Accountability Index
  • Our board, on the record
  • Past drafts, re-graded
  • Methodology
  • Developers · free API
  • About
Account
  • My board
  • Weekly email
Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2022 board/
  4. Compare

Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2022 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (CB)
SG
Sauce Gardner
CB · Cincinnati
21.7 yo · — · —
DH
Daxton Hill
CB · Michigan
21.6 yo · — · —
Tiebreaker
Low confidence
Take Sauce Gardner over Daxton Hill.

Decisive factor: $24M/yr more in projected second-deal AAV.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Sauce Gardner
Predicted pick
#21
range #3–#64
Bust probability· rough estimate
25%
Consensus rank
#7
on 27 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$35Mmodel
Daxton Hill
Predicted pick
#17
range #5–#60
Bust probability· rough estimate
9%
Consensus rank
#23
on 28 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$11Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Sauce Gardner· CB / S
  • Daxton Hill· CB / S
Axis leaders
  • ProductionSauce Gardner45
  • AthleticismSauce Gardner35
  • AgeDaxton Hill87
  • ConsensusSauce Gardner100
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Sauce Gardner50
  • Breakout ageSauce Gardner50
  • WorkloadSauce Gardner100
  • RAS × productionSauce Gardner0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Sauce Gardner
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Daxton Hill
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Sauce Gardner
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Daxton Hill
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Sauce GardnerDaxton Hill· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Sauce Gardner

+0.09 boards with him top-100; +0.08 scout consensus; −0.05 charting catch rate allowed avg

Daxton Hill

+0.06 boards with him top-100; +0.04 boards with him top-50; +0.03 scout consensus