2 prospects · 2022 draft
Decisive factor: a bust risk 42 points lower. Reinforced by 46-pick gap on Draftanomics projection and a stronger historical comp arc.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Jonathan Ford (age 23.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #252 (range #228-#276, wide band). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Renell Wren (Bust), Carlos Davis (Bust), Demarcus Christmas. Ceiling is Sebastian Joseph-Day (Starter); floor is Demarcus Christmas. Drafted #234 by GNB in 2022 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 76 spots ahead of the room (board #252 vs consensus #328) — but size the bet for the 65% bust probability; this is a price edge, not a safety edge.
Draftanomics projects Matthew Butler (age 22.9 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #206 (range #168-#244, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 24% — manageable. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Kingsley Keke (Contributor), Greg Gaines (Starter), Nnamdi Madubuike (Starter). Ceiling is Nnamdi Madubuike (Starter); floor is Kingsley Keke (Contributor). 2 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Davon Godchaux, Chris Slayton. Mixed signal from history. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #112 and the model won't take him before #206 — a 94-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group has bust risk leads the case against.