3 prospects · 2022 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Braxton Jones as a mid-round flyer at #146 (range #123-#169, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Keith Ismael (Contributor), Matt Hennessy (Contributor), Ben Bartch (Contributor). Ceiling is Matt Hennessy (Contributor); floor is Hakeem Adeniji (Contributor). The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #108 and the model won't take him before #146 — a 38-spot markdown. The 38-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.
Draftanomics projects Luke Goedeke as a Day 2 pick at #47 (range #22-#72, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 1 starters-or-better vs 1 backups-or-busts among the 2 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Logan Stenberg (Bust), Hakeem Adeniji (Contributor), Ben Bartch (Contributor). Ceiling is Josh Jones (Starter); floor is Hakeem Adeniji (Contributor). 1 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Logan Stenberg. Mixed signal from history. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 32 spots ahead of the room (board #47 vs consensus #79), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Bernhard Raimann as a first-round pick at #19 (range #6-#32, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 1 starters-or-better vs 1 backups-or-busts among the 2 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Matt Hennessy (Contributor), Matt Peart (Contributor), Josh Jones (Starter). Ceiling is Josh Jones (Starter); floor is Ben Bartch (Contributor). 1 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Logan Stenberg. Mixed signal from history. The call is a value lean: #19 against a consensus #48 is a 29-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with comp group has bust risk the tax on that edge.