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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2021 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (RB)
JW
Javonte Williams
RB · North Carolina
21.0 yo · 5'9" · 212 lb
TE
Travis Etienne
RB · Clemson
22.3 yo · 5'10" · 215 lb
Tiebreaker
Medium confidence
Take Javonte Williams over Travis Etienne.

Decisive factor: a bust risk 65 points lower. Reinforced by 18-pick gap on Draftanomics projection.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Javonte Williams
Predicted pick
#8
range #1–#37
Bust probability
0%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
#39
on 26 boards
Career arc
Bust
tier · 1st Round
2nd-deal AAV
$10Mmodel
Travis Etienne
Predicted pick
#26
range #5–#47
Bust probability
65%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
#28
on 27 boards
Career arc
Starter
tier · 1st Round
2nd-deal AAV
$12Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Javonte Williams· RB / WR / TE
  • Travis Etienne· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionJavonte Williams0
  • AthleticismJavonte Williams19
  • AgeJavonte Williams64
  • ConsensusJavonte Williams27
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Javonte Williams50
  • Breakout ageJavonte Williams50
  • WorkloadJavonte Williams100
  • RAS × productionTravis Etienne79

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • Ezekiel ElliottRB · Starter→ shared byJavonte WilliamsTravis Etienne
  • Joe MixonRB · Bust→ shared byJavonte WilliamsTravis Etienne
Javonte Williams
  • Darrell Henderson
    RB · #70
    Contributor
  • Ezekiel Elliottshared
    RB · #4
    Starter
  • Joe Mixonshared
    RB · #48
    Bust
  • Kenneth Dixon
    RB · #134
    Bust
  • Rashaad Penny
    RB · #27
    Backup
Travis Etienne
  • Derrick Henry
    RB · #45
    Starter
  • Ezekiel Elliottshared
    RB · #4
    Starter
  • Joe Mixonshared
    RB · #48
    Bust
  • Saquon Barkley
    RB · #2
    Franchise
  • C.J. Prosise
    RB · #90
    Starter

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Javonte Williams
Risks
  • Consensus skeptic
    28 boards place him at mean rank #42; model has him #8 — a 34-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
  • Comp group bust rate
    3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Joe Mixon, Kenneth Dixon, Rashaad Penny. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Travis Etienne
Risks
  • Missed entire rookie season
    Drafted #25 by JAX in 2021 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have.
  • Negative per-play impact
    PPA avg_all 0.336 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact.
Opportunities
  • Strong comp group
    4 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes became Starters or Franchise players: Derrick Henry, Ezekiel Elliott, Saquon Barkley (+1 more). The historical neighborhood overwhelmingly produced NFL contributors.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Snap share
Javonte WilliamsTravis Etienne· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Javonte Williams

Draftanomics projects Javonte Williams (age 21.0 at draft) as a top-10 pick at #8 (range #1-#37, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Darrell Henderson (Contributor), Ezekiel Elliott (Starter), Joe Mixon (Bust). Ceiling is Ezekiel Elliott (Starter); floor is Rashaad Penny (Backup). 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Joe Mixon, Kenneth Dixon, Rashaad Penny. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 34 spots ahead of the room (board #8 vs consensus #42), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.

Travis Etienne

Draftanomics projects Travis Etienne (age 22.3 at draft) as a first-round pick at #26 (range #5-#47, wide band). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is strong: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Derrick Henry (Starter), Ezekiel Elliott (Starter), Joe Mixon (Bust). Ceiling is Saquon Barkley (Franchise); floor is C.J. Prosise (Starter). Drafted #25 by JAX in 2021 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #26 sits within 5 spots of the room's #31 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 65% bust probability break ties on draft day.