3 prospects · 2021 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Christian Barmore (age 21.8 at draft) as a first-round pick at #30 (range #23-#37, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Robert Nkemdiche (Starter), Joey Bosa (Starter), Dexter Lawrence (Starter). Ceiling is Joey Bosa (Starter); floor is Myles Jack (Starter). The call is a hold at slot: the model's #30 sits within 5 spots of the room's #25 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Kwity Paye (age 22.4 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #40 (range #32-#48, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Emmanuel Ogbah (Starter), Myles Jack (Starter), Solomon Thomas (Bust). Ceiling is Sheldon Rankins (Starter); floor is Myles Jack (Starter). The call is a lean fade: the model sits 22 spots below the room's consensus #18 — don't pay sticker price. The 22-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.
Draftanomics projects Jay Tufele (age 21.8 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #98 (range #68-#128, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 45% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Montravius Adams (Bust), Caleb Brantley (Bust), Daylon Mack (Bust). Ceiling is Chad Thomas (Contributor); floor is Caleb Brantley (Bust). 4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Montravius Adams, Caleb Brantley, Daylon Mack (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 16 spots below the room's consensus #82 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — average-to-below athletic profile leads the case against.