3 prospects · 2021 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Elijah Moore (age 21.1 at draft) as a first-round pick at #22 (range #1-#66, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: A.J. Brown (Franchise), N'Keal Harry (Contributor), Kelvin Harmon (Bust). Ceiling is Courtland Sutton (Franchise); floor is N'Keal Harry (Contributor). The call is a value lean: #22 against a consensus #36 is a 14-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early.
Draftanomics projects Terrace Marshall Jr. (age 20.9 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #59 (range #41-#77, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: D.K. Metcalf (Franchise), D.J. Moore (Franchise), Courtland Sutton (Franchise). Ceiling is D.J. Moore (Franchise); floor is Antonio Callaway (Contributor). The call is a lean fade: the model sits 21 spots below the room's consensus #38 — don't pay sticker price. The 21-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.
Draftanomics projects Amon-Ra St. Brown (age 21.5 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #39 (range #1-#89, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 1 starters-or-better vs 1 backups-or-busts among the 2 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Dillon Mitchell, Christian Kirk (Franchise), Isaiah Ford. Ceiling is Christian Kirk (Franchise); floor is Dillon Mitchell. 1 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Ryan Switzer. Mixed signal from history. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 35 spots ahead of the room (board #39 vs consensus #74), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.