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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2021 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (WR)
EM
Elijah Moore
WR · Mississippi
21.1 yo · — · —
RB
Rashod Bateman
WR · Minnesota
21.4 yo · 6'0" · 190 lb
DB
Dyami Brown
WR · North Carolina
21.5 yo · 6'0" · 189 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Elijah Moore
Predicted pick
#22
range #1–#66
Bust probability
0%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
#30
on 27 boards
Career arc
Franchise
tier · 1st Round
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Rashod Bateman
Predicted pick
#9
range #1–#68
Bust probability
0%
0%0/4 comps
Consensus rank
#23
on 27 boards
Career arc
Franchise
tier · 1st Round
2nd-deal AAV
$11Mmodel
Dyami Brown
Predicted pick
#60
range #46–#74
Bust probability
0%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
#66
on 23 boards
Career arc
Contributor
tier · Day 2
2nd-deal AAV
$6Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Elijah Moore· RB / WR / TE
  • Rashod Bateman· RB / WR / TE
  • Dyami Brown· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionElijah Moore0
  • AthleticismElijah Moore19
  • AgeElijah Moore75
  • ConsensusElijah Moore27
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Elijah Moore50
  • Breakout ageElijah Moore50
  • WorkloadElijah Moore100
  • RAS × productionElijah Moore41

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • A.J. BrownWR · Franchise→ shared byElijah MooreRashod Bateman
  • N'Keal HarryWR · Contributor→ shared byElijah MooreRashod Bateman
  • Kelvin HarmonWR · Bust→ shared byElijah MooreRashod Bateman
  • Christian KirkWR · Franchise→ shared byElijah MooreRashod Bateman
Elijah Moore
  • A.J. Brownshared
    WR · #51
    Franchise
  • N'Keal Harryshared
    WR · #32
    Contributor
  • Kelvin Harmonshared
    WR · #206
    Bust
  • Christian Kirkshared
    WR · #47
    Franchise
  • Courtland Sutton
    WR · #40
    Franchise
Rashod Bateman
  • N'Keal Harryshared
    WR · #32
    Contributor
  • A.J. Brownshared
    WR · #51
    Franchise
  • Christian Kirkshared
    WR · #47
    Franchise
  • Kelvin Harmonshared
    WR · #206
    Bust
  • Dillon Mitchell
    WR · #239
    TBD
Dyami Brown
  • JJ Arcega-Whiteside
    WR · #57
    Contributor
  • James Washington
    WR · #60
    Contributor
  • Marquise Brown
    WR · #25
    Starter
  • JuJu Smith-Schuster
    WR · #62
    Bust
  • Tre'Quan Smith
    WR · #91
    Starter

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Elijah Moore
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
  • Strong comp group
    3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes became Starters or Franchise players: A.J. Brown, Christian Kirk, Courtland Sutton. The historical neighborhood overwhelmingly produced NFL contributors.
Rashod Bateman
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
  • Promising comp group
    2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes hit Starter-or-better: A.J. Brown, Christian Kirk.
Dyami Brown
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
  • Promising comp group
    2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes hit Starter-or-better: Marquise Brown, Tre'Quan Smith.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Snap share
Elijah MooreRashod BatemanDyami Brown· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Elijah Moore

Draftanomics projects Elijah Moore (age 21.1 at draft) as a first-round pick at #22 (range #1-#66, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: A.J. Brown (Franchise), N'Keal Harry (Contributor), Kelvin Harmon (Bust). Ceiling is Courtland Sutton (Franchise); floor is N'Keal Harry (Contributor). The call is a value lean: #22 against a consensus #36 is a 14-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early.

Rashod Bateman

Draftanomics projects Rashod Bateman (age 21.4 at draft) as a top-10 pick at #9 (range #1-#68, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: N'Keal Harry (Contributor), A.J. Brown (Franchise), Christian Kirk (Franchise). Ceiling is Christian Kirk (Franchise); floor is Dillon Mitchell. The call is a value lean: #9 against a consensus #28 is a 19-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early.

Dyami Brown

Draftanomics projects Dyami Brown (age 21.5 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #60 (range #46-#74, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: JJ Arcega-Whiteside (Contributor), James Washington (Contributor), Marquise Brown (Starter). Ceiling is Marquise Brown (Starter); floor is James Washington (Contributor). The call is a hold at slot: the model's #60 sits within 8 spots of the room's #68 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.