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Draftanomics

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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2021 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (RB)
TE
Travis Etienne
RB · Clemson
22.3 yo · 5'10" · 215 lb
TS
Trey Sermon
RB · Ohio St.
22.3 yo · 6'0" · 215 lb
Tiebreaker
Low confidence
Take Travis Etienne over Trey Sermon.

Decisive factor: 66-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by a stronger historical comp arc and $8M/yr more in projected second-deal AAV.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Travis Etienne
Predicted pick
#26
range #5–#47
Bust probability
65%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
#28
on 27 boards
Career arc
Starter
tier · 1st Round
2nd-deal AAV
$12Mmodel
Trey Sermon
Predicted pick
#92
range #47–#137
Bust probability
20%
0%0/4 comps
Consensus rank
#90
on 9 boards
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 2
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Travis Etienne· RB / WR / TE
  • Trey Sermon· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionTravis Etienne0
  • AthleticismTravis Etienne19
  • AgeTravis Etienne64
  • ConsensusTravis Etienne27
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Travis Etienne50
  • Breakout ageTravis Etienne50
  • WorkloadTravis Etienne100
  • RAS × productionTrey Sermon100

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • C.J. ProsiseRB · Starter→ shared byTravis EtienneTrey Sermon
Travis Etienne
  • Derrick Henry
    RB · #45
    Starter
  • Ezekiel Elliott
    RB · #4
    Starter
  • Joe Mixon
    RB · #48
    Bust
  • Saquon Barkley
    RB · #2
    Franchise
  • C.J. Prosiseshared
    RB · #90
    Starter
Trey Sermon
  • Dexter Williams
    RB · #194
    Bust
  • Mike Weber
    RB · #218
    TBD
  • C.J. Prosiseshared
    RB · #90
    Starter
  • Kenyan Drake
    RB · #73
    Contributor
  • Bo Scarbrough
    RB · #236
    Bust

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Travis Etienne
Risks
  • Missed entire rookie season
    Drafted #25 by JAX in 2021 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have.
  • Negative per-play impact
    PPA avg_all 0.336 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact.
Opportunities
  • Strong comp group
    4 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes became Starters or Franchise players: Derrick Henry, Ezekiel Elliott, Saquon Barkley (+1 more). The historical neighborhood overwhelmingly produced NFL contributors.
Trey Sermon
Risks
  • Comp group bust rate
    2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Dexter Williams, Bo Scarbrough. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
  • Negative per-play impact
    PPA avg_all 0.281 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Snap share
Travis EtienneTrey Sermon· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Travis Etienne

Draftanomics projects Travis Etienne (age 22.3 at draft) as a first-round pick at #26 (range #5-#47, wide band). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is strong: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Derrick Henry (Starter), Ezekiel Elliott (Starter), Joe Mixon (Bust). Ceiling is Saquon Barkley (Franchise); floor is C.J. Prosise (Starter). Drafted #25 by JAX in 2021 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #26 sits within 5 spots of the room's #31 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 65% bust probability break ties on draft day.

Trey Sermon

Draftanomics projects Trey Sermon (age 22.2 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #92 (range #47-#137, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 20% — manageable. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Dexter Williams (Bust), Mike Weber, C.J. Prosise (Starter). Ceiling is C.J. Prosise (Starter); floor is Mike Weber. 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Dexter Williams, Bo Scarbrough. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 14 spots below the room's consensus #78 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.