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Draftanomics

Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2021 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (WR)
AB
Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR · USC
21.5 yo · 5'11" · 197 lb
EM
Elijah Moore
WR · Mississippi
21.1 yo · — · —
RB
Rashod Bateman
WR · Minnesota
21.4 yo · 6'0" · 190 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Amon-Ra St. Brown
Predicted pick
#39
range #1–#89
Bust probability
0%
0%0/3 comps
Consensus rank
#76
on 22 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$33Mmodel
Elijah Moore
Predicted pick
#22
range #1–#66
Bust probability
0%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
#30
on 27 boards
Career arc
Franchise
tier · 1st Round
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Rashod Bateman
Predicted pick
#9
range #1–#68
Bust probability
0%
0%0/4 comps
Consensus rank
#23
on 27 boards
Career arc
Franchise
tier · 1st Round
2nd-deal AAV
$11Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown· RB / WR / TE
  • Elijah Moore· RB / WR / TE
  • Rashod Bateman· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionAmon-Ra St. Brown0
  • AthleticismAmon-Ra St. Brown19
  • AgeElijah Moore75
  • ConsensusElijah Moore27
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Amon-Ra St. Brown50
  • Breakout ageAmon-Ra St. Brown50
  • WorkloadAmon-Ra St. Brown100
  • RAS × productionElijah Moore41

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • Christian KirkWR · Franchise→ shared byAmon-Ra St. BrownElijah MooreRashod Bateman
  • Dillon MitchellWR · TBD→ shared byAmon-Ra St. BrownRashod Bateman
  • A.J. BrownWR · Franchise→ shared byElijah MooreRashod Bateman
  • N'Keal HarryWR · Contributor→ shared byElijah MooreRashod Bateman
  • Kelvin HarmonWR · Bust→ shared byElijah MooreRashod Bateman
Amon-Ra St. Brown
  • Dillon Mitchellshared
    WR · #239
    TBD
  • Christian Kirkshared
    WR · #47
    Franchise
  • Isaiah Ford
    WR · #237
    TBD
  • Ryan Switzer
    WR · #133
    Bust
  • Antonio Callaway
    WR · #105
    Contributor
Elijah Moore
  • A.J. Brownshared
    WR · #51
    Franchise
  • N'Keal Harryshared
    WR · #32
    Contributor
  • Kelvin Harmonshared
    WR · #206
    Bust
  • Christian Kirkshared
    WR · #47
    Franchise
  • Courtland Sutton
    WR · #40
    Franchise
Rashod Bateman
  • N'Keal Harryshared
    WR · #32
    Contributor
  • A.J. Brownshared
    WR · #51
    Franchise
  • Christian Kirkshared
    WR · #47
    Franchise
  • Kelvin Harmonshared
    WR · #206
    Bust
  • Dillon Mitchellshared
    WR · #239
    TBD

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Amon-Ra St. Brown
Risks
  • Consensus skeptic
    23 boards place him at mean rank #74; model has him #39 — a 35-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
  • Comp group has bust risk
    1 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Ryan Switzer. Mixed signal from history.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Elijah Moore
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
  • Strong comp group
    3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes became Starters or Franchise players: A.J. Brown, Christian Kirk, Courtland Sutton. The historical neighborhood overwhelmingly produced NFL contributors.
Rashod Bateman
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
  • Promising comp group
    2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes hit Starter-or-better: A.J. Brown, Christian Kirk.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Snap share
Amon-Ra St. BrownElijah MooreRashod Bateman· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Amon-Ra St. Brown

Draftanomics projects Amon-Ra St. Brown (age 21.5 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #39 (range #1-#89, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 1 starters-or-better vs 1 backups-or-busts among the 2 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Dillon Mitchell, Christian Kirk (Franchise), Isaiah Ford. Ceiling is Christian Kirk (Franchise); floor is Dillon Mitchell. 1 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Ryan Switzer. Mixed signal from history. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 35 spots ahead of the room (board #39 vs consensus #74), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.

Elijah Moore

Draftanomics projects Elijah Moore (age 21.1 at draft) as a first-round pick at #22 (range #1-#66, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: A.J. Brown (Franchise), N'Keal Harry (Contributor), Kelvin Harmon (Bust). Ceiling is Courtland Sutton (Franchise); floor is N'Keal Harry (Contributor). The call is a value lean: #22 against a consensus #36 is a 14-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early.

Rashod Bateman

Draftanomics projects Rashod Bateman (age 21.4 at draft) as a top-10 pick at #9 (range #1-#68, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: N'Keal Harry (Contributor), A.J. Brown (Franchise), Christian Kirk (Franchise). Ceiling is Christian Kirk (Franchise); floor is Dillon Mitchell. The call is a value lean: #9 against a consensus #28 is a 19-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early.