3 prospects · 2021 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Amon-Ra St. Brown (age 21.5 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #39 (range #1-#89, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 1 starters-or-better vs 1 backups-or-busts among the 2 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Dillon Mitchell, Christian Kirk (Franchise), Isaiah Ford. Ceiling is Christian Kirk (Franchise); floor is Dillon Mitchell. 1 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Ryan Switzer. Mixed signal from history. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 35 spots ahead of the room (board #39 vs consensus #74), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Seth Williams (age 21.1 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #87 (range #37-#137, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Isaiah Ford, Dante Pettis (Contributor), Ryan Switzer (Bust). Ceiling is Dante Pettis (Contributor); floor is Dillon Mitchell. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #87 sits within 6 spots of the room's #93 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Ja'Marr Chase (age 21.2 at draft) as a top-10 pick at #4 (range #1-#22, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: D.J. Moore (Franchise), D.K. Metcalf (Franchise), Courtland Sutton (Franchise). Ceiling is D.J. Moore (Franchise); floor is Antonio Callaway (Contributor). The call is a hold at slot: the model's #4 and the room's #6 land on the same answer — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.