2 prospects · 2021 draft
Decisive factor: 55-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by $31M/yr more in projected second-deal AAV.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Terrace Marshall Jr. (age 20.9 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #59 (range #41-#77, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: D.K. Metcalf (Franchise), D.J. Moore (Franchise), Courtland Sutton (Franchise). Ceiling is D.J. Moore (Franchise); floor is Antonio Callaway (Contributor). The call is a lean fade: the model sits 21 spots below the room's consensus #38 — don't pay sticker price. The 21-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.
Draftanomics projects Ja'Marr Chase (age 21.2 at draft) as a top-10 pick at #4 (range #1-#22, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: D.J. Moore (Franchise), D.K. Metcalf (Franchise), Courtland Sutton (Franchise). Ceiling is D.J. Moore (Franchise); floor is Antonio Callaway (Contributor). The call is a hold at slot: the model's #4 and the room's #6 land on the same answer — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.