3 prospects · 2021 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Levi Onwuzurike (age 23.2 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #45 (range #5-#85, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Jarrad Davis (Bust), Cameron Smith (Bust), Greg Gaines (Starter). Ceiling is L.J. Collier (Starter); floor is Taven Bryan (Contributor). Age 23.2 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #45 sits within 3 spots of the room's #48 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Rashad Weaver (age 23.5 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #156 (range #117-#195, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 10% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Jordan Brailford (Bust), Micah Kiser (Contributor), Blake Cashman (Starter). Ceiling is Josey Jewell (Starter); floor is Micah Kiser (Contributor). Age 23.5 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #93 and the model won't take him before #156 — a 63-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Adetokunbo Ogundeji (age 22.6 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #168 (range #147-#189, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Ben Burr-Kirven (Bust), Cody Barton (Starter), Josh Sweat (Starter). Ceiling is Deion Jones (Starter); floor is B.J. Goodson (Contributor). School SP+ 21.0 (FBS INDEPENDENTS). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #112 and the model won't take him before #168 — a 56-spot markdown. The 56-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.