Compare prospects · Draftanomics

Rashad Weaver

DL · Pittsburgh

23.5 yo · 6'4" · 259 lb

Quincy Roche

DL · Miami (FL)

23.2 yo · — · —

Boogie Basham

DL · Wake Forest

23.4 yo · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Rashad Weaver

Predicted pick

#156

range #117–#195

Bust probability

10%

0%0/5 comps

Consensus rank

#150

on 23 boards

Career arc

Contributor

tier · Day 3

2nd-deal AAV

$3Mmodel

Quincy Roche

Predicted pick

#85

range #60–#110

Bust probability

45%

0%0/5 comps

Consensus rank

#117

on 10 boards

Career arc

Contributor

tier · Day 2

2nd-deal AAV

$4Mmodel

Boogie Basham

Predicted pick

#207

range #190–#224

Bust probability

Consensus rank

—

no boards yet

Career arc

arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.

2nd-deal AAV

$2Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

Prospects

Rashad Weaver· EDGE / DL / LB
Quincy Roche· EDGE / DL / LB
Boogie Basham· EDGE / DL / LB

Axis leaders

ProductionRashad Weaver0
AthleticismRashad Weaver19
AgeQuincy Roche46
ConsensusQuincy Roche13
Per-play impact (PPA)Rashad Weaver50
Breakout ageRashad Weaver50
WorkloadRashad Weaver100
RAS × productionRashad Weaver30

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps

Micah KiserILB · Contributor→ shared byRashad WeaverQuincy Roche

Rashad Weaver

Jordan Brailford
EDGE · #253
Bust
Micah Kisershared
ILB · #147
Contributor
Blake Cashman
LB · #157
Starter
Josey Jewell
ILB · #106
Starter
Sione Takitaki
LB · #80
Contributor

Quincy Roche

Sutton Smith
EDGE · #175
Bust
Jaylon Ferguson
EDGE · #85
Contributor
Micah Kisershared
ILB · #147
Contributor
Genard Avery
LB · #150
Contributor
Tarell Basham
EDGE · #80
Bust

Boogie Basham

comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Rashad Weaver

Risks

Older prospect
Age 23.5 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.

Opportunities

Consensus says higher
24 boards have him at mean rank #93; model has him #156 — a 63-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
Promising comp group
2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes hit Starter-or-better: Blake Cashman, Josey Jewell.

Quincy Roche

Risks

Older prospect
Age 23.2 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
Comp group bust rate
2 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Sutton Smith, Tarell Basham. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.

Opportunities

No standout upside flags.

Boogie Basham

Risks

Older prospect
Age 23.4 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
No athletic testing
No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.

Opportunities

Consensus says higher
1 board have him at mean rank #43; model has him #207 — a 164-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

Rashad WeaverQuincy RocheBoogie Basham· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Rashad Weaver

Draftanomics projects Rashad Weaver (age 23.5 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #156 (range #117-#195, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 10% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Jordan Brailford (Bust), Micah Kiser (Contributor), Blake Cashman (Starter). Ceiling is Josey Jewell (Starter); floor is Micah Kiser (Contributor). Age 23.5 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #93 and the model won't take him before #156 — a 63-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.

Quincy Roche

Draftanomics projects Quincy Roche (age 23.2 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #85 (range #60-#110, wide band). Bust probability sits at 45% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 2 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Sutton Smith (Bust), Jaylon Ferguson (Contributor), Micah Kiser (Contributor). Ceiling is Jaylon Ferguson (Contributor); floor is Genard Avery (Contributor). 2 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Sutton Smith, Tarell Basham. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #85 sits within 8 spots of the room's #93 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 45% bust probability break ties on draft day.

Boogie Basham

Draftanomics projects Boogie Basham (age 23.4 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #207 (range #190-#224, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. Age 23.4 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #43 and the model won't take him before #207 — a 164-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.