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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2021 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (LB, OL, CB)
MP
Micah Parsons
LB · Penn St.
21.9 yo · 6'3" · 246 lb
SC
Samuel Cosmi
OL · Texas
— · 6'5" · 314 lb
CF
Caleb Farley
CB · Virginia Tech
22.5 yo · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Micah Parsons
Predicted pick
#6
range #4–#30
Bust probability
10%
Consensus rank
#11
on 28 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$43Mmodel
Samuel Cosmi
Predicted pick
#34
range #12–#71
Bust probability· rough estimate
1%
Consensus rank
#41
on 26 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$17Mmodel
Caleb Farley
Predicted pick
#37
range #11–#141
Bust probability· rough estimate
63%
Consensus rank
#16
on 27 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Micah Parsons· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Samuel Cosmi· Offensive line
  • Caleb Farley· CB / S
Axis leaders
  • ProductionSamuel Cosmi50
  • AthleticismSamuel Cosmi72
  • AgeMicah Parsons67
  • ConsensusMicah Parsons95
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Micah Parsons50
  • Breakout ageMicah Parsons50
  • WorkloadMicah Parsons100
  • RAS × productionCaleb Farley40

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Micah Parsons
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Samuel Cosmi
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Caleb Farley
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Micah Parsons
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Samuel Cosmi
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Caleb Farley
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Micah ParsonsSamuel CosmiCaleb Farley· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Micah Parsons

+0.09 boards with him top-100; +0.07 scout consensus; +0.03 athleticism (RAS)

Samuel Cosmi

+0.06 boards with him top-100; +0.04 athleticism (RAS); +0.02 boards with him top-50

Caleb Farley

+0.11 boards with him top-100; +0.07 scout consensus; +0.03 rank within position+class