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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2021 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2021 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (WR)
JC
Ja'Marr Chase
WR · LSU
21.2 yo · 6'0" · 201 lb
TJ
Terrace Marshall Jr.
WR · LSU
20.9 yo · 6'2" · 205 lb
Tiebreaker
High confidence
Take Ja'Marr Chase over Terrace Marshall Jr..

Decisive factor: 55-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by $31M/yr more in projected second-deal AAV.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Ja'Marr Chase
Predicted pick
#4
range #2–#28
Bust probability
9%
Consensus rank
#4
on 28 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$35Mmodel
Terrace Marshall Jr.
Predicted pick
#59
range #23–#192
Bust probability
4%
Consensus rank
#31
on 26 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Ja'Marr Chase· RB / WR / TE
  • Terrace Marshall Jr.· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionJa'Marr Chase0
  • AthleticismTerrace Marshall Jr.68
  • AgeJa'Marr Chase64
  • ConsensusJa'Marr Chase95
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Ja'Marr Chase50
  • Breakout ageJa'Marr Chase50
  • WorkloadJa'Marr Chase100
  • RAS × productionJa'Marr Chase0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Ja'Marr Chase
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Terrace Marshall Jr.
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Ja'Marr Chase
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Terrace Marshall Jr.
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Ja'Marr ChaseTerrace Marshall Jr.· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Ja'Marr Chase

+0.11 boards with him top-100; +0.09 scout consensus; −0.04 charting: deep-route grade, final season

Terrace Marshall Jr.

+0.09 boards with him top-100; −0.05 charting: deep-route grade, final season; +0.04 athleticism (RAS)