3 prospects · 2021 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Elerson Smith (age 22.8 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #96 (range #65-#127, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 45% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Ty Summers (Bust), Cortez Broughton (Bust), Joel Iyiegbuniwe (Bust). Ceiling is Blake Cashman (Starter); floor is Cortez Broughton (Bust). RAS 8.04 (80th percentile at DL). Athletic tools that translate cleanly to the NFL. 4 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Ty Summers, Cortez Broughton, Joel Iyiegbuniwe (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a value lean: #96 against a consensus #116 is a 20-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with comp group bust rate the tax on that edge.
Draftanomics projects Milton Williams (age 22.1 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #64 (range #42-#86, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Tyus Bowser (Bust), Malik Jefferson (Bust), Yannick Ngakoue (Starter). Ceiling is Brian Burns (Starter); floor is Yannick Ngakoue (Starter). 3 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Tyus Bowser, Malik Jefferson, Joel Iyiegbuniwe. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a value lean: #64 against a consensus #79 is a 15-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with comp group bust rate the tax on that edge.
Draftanomics projects Osa Odighizuwa (age 22.7 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #86 (range #58-#114, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 4% — low. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Shaquille Leonard (Franchise), Justin Jones (Starter), Anthony Walker (Bust). Ceiling is Shaquille Leonard (Franchise); floor is Oren Burks (Contributor). 2 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Anthony Walker, Tanoh Kpassagnon. Mixed signal from history. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #86 and the room's #85 land on the same answer — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 4% bust probability break ties on draft day.