2 prospects · 2021 draft
Decisive factor: 31-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by $8M/yr more in projected second-deal AAV.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Pat Freiermuth (age 22.5 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #46 (range #1-#91, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 1 starters-or-better vs 1 backups-or-busts among the 2 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Kaden Smith (Contributor), Jordan Leggett, T.J. Hockenson (Starter). Ceiling is T.J. Hockenson (Starter); floor is Kaden Smith (Contributor). RAS 4.03 (40th percentile at TE). Athleticism is average at best for the position. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #46 sits within 3 spots of the room's #49 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Kyle Pitts (age 20.6 at draft) as a first-round pick at #15 (range #6-#24, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Noah Fant (Starter), T.J. Hockenson (Starter), Evan Engram (Bust). Ceiling is T.J. Hockenson (Starter); floor is Irv Smith Jr. (Contributor). 2 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Evan Engram, David Njoku. Mixed signal from history. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #15 sits within 12 spots of the room's #4 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.