3 prospects · 2021 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Stone Forsythe as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #104 (range #83-#125, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Pat Elflein, Michael Deiter (Starter), Michael Jordan (Starter). Ceiling is Ben Powers (Franchise); floor is Pat Elflein. The call is a value lean: #104 against a consensus #116 is a 12-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early.
Draftanomics projects Trey Hill as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #79 (range #34-#124, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Geron Christian (Contributor), Sebastian Tretola, Pat Elflein. Ceiling is David Edwards (Franchise); floor is Will Clapp (Contributor). RAS 4.15 (41th percentile at OL). Athleticism is average at best for the position. The call is a value lean: #79 against a consensus #105 is a 26-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with average-to-below athletic profile the tax on that edge.
Draftanomics projects Penei Sewell as a first-round pick at #11 (range #3-#19, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Erik McCoy (Franchise), Garett Bolles, Connor Williams (Franchise). Ceiling is Erik McCoy (Franchise); floor is Andre Dillard (Contributor). The call is a hold at slot: the model's #11 sits within 7 spots of the room's #4 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.