3 prospects · 2021 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Jaylen Twyman (age 21.8 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #179 (range #146-#212, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Shareef Miller (Bust), Austin Johnson (Starter), Jaleel Johnson (Bust). Ceiling is Austin Johnson (Starter); floor is Hassan Ridgeway (Starter). Drafted #199 by MIN in 2021 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #87 and the model won't take him before #179 — a 92-spot markdown. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Kwity Paye (age 22.4 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #40 (range #32-#48, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Emmanuel Ogbah (Starter), Myles Jack (Starter), Solomon Thomas (Bust). Ceiling is Sheldon Rankins (Starter); floor is Myles Jack (Starter). The call is a lean fade: the model sits 22 spots below the room's consensus #18 — don't pay sticker price. The 22-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.
Draftanomics projects Gregory Rousseau (age 21.1 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #36 (range #21-#51, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Brian Burns (Starter), Harold Landry (Starter), Montez Sweat (Starter). Ceiling is Bradley Chubb (Starter); floor is Harold Landry (Starter). The call is a hold at slot: the model's #36 sits within 2 spots of the room's #38 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.