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Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

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RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2021 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (DL)
TS
Tedarrell Slaton
DL · Florida
23.6 yo · 6'4" · 330 lb
JT
Jay Tufele
DL · USC
21.8 yo · 6'2" · 305 lb
BB
Boogie Basham
DL · Wake Forest
23.4 yo · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Tedarrell Slaton
Predicted pick
#194
range #159–#229
Bust probability
0%
0%0/4 comps
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$7Mmodel
Jay Tufele
Predicted pick
#98
range #68–#128
Bust probability
45%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
#100
on 22 boards
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 2
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Boogie Basham
Predicted pick
#207
range #190–#224
Bust probability
0%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$2Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Tedarrell Slaton· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Jay Tufele· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Boogie Basham· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionTedarrell Slaton0
  • AthleticismJay Tufele19
  • AgeJay Tufele78
  • ConsensusTedarrell Slaton11
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Tedarrell Slaton50
  • Breakout ageTedarrell Slaton50
  • WorkloadTedarrell Slaton100
  • RAS × productionTedarrell Slaton30

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Tedarrell Slaton
  • Dontavius Russell
    DT · #235
    Bust
  • Vince Biegel
    LB · #108
    Bust
  • Demarcus Christmas
    DT · #209
    TBD
  • Byron Cowart
    DT · #159
    Contributor
  • Dakota Allen
    LB · #251
    Bust
Jay Tufele
  • Montravius Adams
    DT · #93
    Bust
  • Caleb Brantley
    DT · #185
    Bust
  • Daylon Mack
    DT · #160
    Bust
  • Chad Thomas
    EDGE · #67
    Contributor
  • Andrew Brown
    EDGE · #158
    Bust
Boogie Basham
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Tedarrell Slaton
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.6 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • Average-to-below athletic profile
    RAS 3.97 (39th percentile at DL). Athleticism is average at best for the position.
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #333; model has him #194 — a 139-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Jay Tufele
Risks
  • Average-to-below athletic profile
    RAS 3.62 (36th percentile at DL). Athleticism is average at best for the position.
  • Comp group bust rate
    4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Montravius Adams, Caleb Brantley, Daylon Mack (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Boogie Basham
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.4 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    1 board have him at mean rank #43; model has him #207 — a 164-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Snap share
Tedarrell SlatonJay TufeleBoogie Basham· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Tedarrell Slaton

Draftanomics projects Tedarrell Slaton (age 23.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #194 (range #159-#229, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Dontavius Russell (Bust), Vince Biegel (Bust), Demarcus Christmas. Ceiling is Byron Cowart (Contributor); floor is Demarcus Christmas. 3 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Dontavius Russell, Vince Biegel, Dakota Allen. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 139 spots ahead of the room (board #194 vs consensus #333), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.

Jay Tufele

Draftanomics projects Jay Tufele (age 21.8 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #98 (range #68-#128, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 45% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Montravius Adams (Bust), Caleb Brantley (Bust), Daylon Mack (Bust). Ceiling is Chad Thomas (Contributor); floor is Caleb Brantley (Bust). 4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Montravius Adams, Caleb Brantley, Daylon Mack (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 16 spots below the room's consensus #82 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — average-to-below athletic profile leads the case against.

Boogie Basham

Draftanomics projects Boogie Basham (age 23.4 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #207 (range #190-#224, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. Age 23.4 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #43 and the model won't take him before #207 — a 164-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.