2 prospects · 2021 draft
Decisive factor: $27M/yr more in projected second-deal AAV. Reinforced by 21-pick gap on Draftanomics projection.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Dyami Brown (age 21.5 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #60 (range #46-#74, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: JJ Arcega-Whiteside (Contributor), James Washington (Contributor), Marquise Brown (Starter). Ceiling is Marquise Brown (Starter); floor is James Washington (Contributor). The call is a hold at slot: the model's #60 sits within 8 spots of the room's #68 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Amon-Ra St. Brown (age 21.5 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #39 (range #1-#89, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 1 starters-or-better vs 1 backups-or-busts among the 2 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Dillon Mitchell, Christian Kirk (Franchise), Isaiah Ford. Ceiling is Christian Kirk (Franchise); floor is Dillon Mitchell. 1 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Ryan Switzer. Mixed signal from history. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 35 spots ahead of the room (board #39 vs consensus #74), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.