2 prospects · 2021 draft
Decisive factor: a bust risk 65 points lower. Reinforced by a stronger historical comp arc, $13M/yr more in projected second-deal AAV and 13-pick gap on Draftanomics projection.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Nick Bolton (age 21.1 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #48 (range #4-#92, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Emeke Egbule (Bust), Bobby Okereke (Starter), Deshaun Davis. Ceiling is Shaquille Leonard (Franchise); floor is Deshaun Davis. RAS 2.55 (25th percentile vs LB prospects in a 35-yr Combine population). Below the 30th-percentile bar that most NFL starters clear. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #48 sits within 7 spots of the room's #55 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Cameron McGrone (age 20.9 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #61 (range #24-#98, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Anthony Walker (Bust), Vosean Joseph, Raekwon McMillan. Ceiling is Shaquille Leonard (Franchise); floor is Vosean Joseph. Drafted #177 by NWE in 2021 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a value lean: #61 against a consensus #87 is a 26-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with missed entire rookie season the tax on that edge.